Predictors of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C: Findings from a 24-month follow-up study in Almaty, Kazakhstan

Manzura Baimukhanova; Gaukhar Kurmanova; Gulzhan Trimova; Zhanar Serikbayeva; Nazgul Aliftenova; Bayan Nurgaliyeva; Assem Kazbekova; Shugyla Amirtayeva; Daniyar Sultankulov; Sholpan Sadykova

doi:10.23750/abm.v96i6.18158

Predictors of cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C: Findings from a 24-month follow-up study in Almaty, Kazakhstan

Authors

Manzura Baimukhanova Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7546-1190
Gaukhar Kurmanova Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5768-0209
Gulzhan Trimova Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8130-4150
Zhanar Serikbayeva Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2311-5129
Nazgul Aliftenova Department of Propaedeutic of Internal Diseases, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0579-3214
Bayan Nurgaliyeva Department of Propaedeutic of Internal Diseases, Asfendiyarov Kazakh National Medical University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2555-8644
Assem Kazbekova Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Kazakhstan’s Medical University “KSPH”, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1655-1523
Shugyla Amirtayeva Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8577-9558
Daniyar Sultankulov Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6757-6854
Sholpan Sadykova Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Healthcare, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Keywords:

chronic hepatitis C, cirrhosis, predictors, diabetes mellitus, sustained virological response, glycemic control, risk factors, Kazakhstan, follow-up study, liver disease progression

Abstract

Background and aim: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a significant global health challenge, affecting an estimated 50 million people worldwide and causing approximately 1 million new cases annually. The presence of cirrhosis and diabetes mellitus appear to amplify the clinical and economic impact of HCV related disease. This study aims to evaluate the incidence of liver cirrhosis within a 24‑month follow‑up period after HCV diagnosis, as well as its association with diabetes and other prognostic factors.

Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of adults with chronic HCV in Almaty, Kazakhstan, using surveillance and medical record data through December 2024. Eligible patients (ICD‑10 B18.2) had ≥24 months of follow‑up and were assessed for cirrhosis (FibroScan F4) in relation to demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors, including diabetes. Group comparisons and logistic regression identified independent predictors, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

Results: We performed a retrospective analysis of adults with chronic HCV in Almaty, Kazakhstan, using surveillance and medical record data through December 2024. Eligible patients (ICD‑10 B18.2) had ≥24 months of follow‑up and were assessed for cirrhosis (FibroScan F4) in relation to demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors, including diabetes. Group comparisons and logistic regression identified independent predictors, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05.

Conclusions: In patients with chronic HCV in Almaty, Kazakhstan, diabetes, poor glycemic control, elevated GGT, and low platelet count were independent predictors of cirrhosis, while sustained virological response was protective. These findings highlight the need for integrated antiviral and metabolic management, with tailored monitoring for high‑risk patients to reduce disease progression beyond existing dispanserization measures (www.actabiomedica.it)

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